Here are 11 predictions for 2011 related to endurance running and walking.

If my predictions come true, it definitely will be an interesting year!

1. A new marathon world record for men or women will be set.

According to Wikipedia, the latest two men’s world records were set in 2007 and 2008 (both by Haile Gebrselassie), and the latest two women’s world records were set in 2002 and 2003 (both by Paula Radcliffe). So 2011 would mark three years and eight years since the latest men’s and women’s records, respectively, were last set.

Why It’s Interesting: Ryan Hall, who is the first American to run a half marathon in less than one hour, has predicted that the two-hour barrier for the marathon will be broken. Each new men’s record puts the world record closer to that two-hour barrier.

2. More races will go to a lottery system.

Organizers for the Chevron Houston Marathon in the summer of 2010 announced a lottery system for its event on 30 January 2011, claiming that this would be fairer to potential registrants after the experience of selling out the 2010 event in only a few days. In apparent response to negative reactions by many (as in, “This is not the New York City Marathon!”), organizers scrambled to announce that multi-year Houston veterans would be automatically accepted. But organizers kept the lottery in place.

Why It’s Interesting: Many runners and walkers are accustomed to no lottery system for many marathons and other endurance races. So expect complaints when their favorite race goes to a lottery system.

3. Barefoot runners will become less barefoot.

One of the chief arguments for barefoot running is that it puts the body in a more natural, less-injury-causing position at foot strike. But many people who are new to barefoot running quickly discover that there are many surface hazards — glass, nails, etc. — for which the simplest protection is some sort of covering over the feet (even if that covering is a barefoot-style shoe), NOT constant vigilance by the runner.

Why It’s Interesting: Barefoot-style shoe sales should increase as those barefoot runners who incur surface injuries decide that they need SOME sort of protection on their feet (just as many people who do manual labor wear gloves to protect their hands).

4. Non-barefoot runners will wear lighter shoes.

As more runners become aware of the barefoot-running trend and what it implies in terms of foot strike, more runners will ask for shoes with less heel cushioning and therefore less weight.

Why It’s Interesting: The heels of running shoes will drift toward less stability, and this will make walkers think a second time about wearing running shoes for walking, which usually involves landing on the heel.

5. Hydration will become more scientific.

Hydration has one of the biggest impacts on the performance of an endurance runner or walker. Recognizing this, Cambridge Consultants recently announced that it would be demonstrating at the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show a futuristic water bottle that will let a user know whether he or she is becoming dehydrated.

Why It’s Interesting: Although many endurance runners and walkers know the tip to consume in fluid ounces the equivalent of the weight lost in weight ounces, this tip relies initially on several weeks of weighing oneself as soon as possible after a long run or walk has occurred so as to develop a sensitivity to becoming dehydrated. If hydration monitoring becomes more scientific, this approach could revolutionize hydration in a way similar to the way that constant monitoring of the heart has revolutionized runners’ and walkers’ knowledge of their aerobic capacity.

6. Hydration devices will become more popular.

The news about the hydration-sensing bottle from Cambridge Consultants in 2011 will re-energize the discussion about and attention to the need for adequate hydration. This will cause more runners and walkers to pay closer attention to the hydration devices on fellow athletes and lead to greater sales.

Why It’s Interesting: There has not been a breakthrough in hydration for endurance runners and walkers since the invention of the hydration belt. Although hydration packs can hold at least two times more fluid than hydration belts, many runners and walkers do not like the weight of packs on their shoulders and backs. But longer distances demand more fluid, so look for at least one manufacturer to increase the fluid capacity of its hydration belt.

7. New fund-raising records will be set by races.

Everywhere you turn, you see endurance races raising ever-increasing funds for charities. If my prediction holds true that more marathons and other endurance races will switch to lotteries, then there should be a concomitant rise in charitable fund-raising as these same races offer charity slots for guaranteed registration.

Why It’s Interesting: The book Generations predicted in 1992 that the USA would enter a new “civic” cycle in 2003 and that it would take until 2010 for most Americans to recognize this cycle. Because this cycle is marked by more social cohesiveness, one could expect charitable giving to rise during the cycle.

8. Step beepers will become more popular.

A step beeper lets you set a repeating, audible cue with a rhythm that matches your cadence. For example, if you want to run at 185 steps per minute, then you can set a step beeper to beep 185 times per minute. Because the beeping from a step beeper usually draws attention from other runners or walkers, it effectively advertises itself.

Why It’s Interesting: As more runners and walkers wear step beepers in endurance races, expect confusion and irritation as multiple step-beeper wearers run or walk by one another.

9. Runners and walkers will become more cellphone-safety-aware.

A spokesman for the cellphone industry has dismissed the need for a cellphone-safety campaign for pedestrians. But growing evidence suggests that there is such a need. And this explains why I launched SpryFeet.com’s “Alert and Alive” pledge campaign a few months ago to urge runners and walkers to practice cellphone safety on the road or trail.

Why It’s Interesting: Unfortunately, if more runners and walkers are seriously injured or killed as a result of lack of safety with cellphones, then the cellphone industry may have to reverse itself publicly.

10. EFT will spread among runners and walkers.

EFT is the acronym for Emotional Freedom Techniques, an energy-psychology discipline that some call meridian tapping or psychological acupuncture. Although still considered to be experimental, there is growing awareness about EFT, which can help users to overcome physical as well as emotional pain, through movies such as OPERATION: Emotional Freedom (about using EFT to treat post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in combat veterans). And this growing awareness is bound to spread to endurance runners and walkers.

Why It’s Interesting: Nobody has yet applied EFT to endurance running or walking to any significant degree.

11. Knowledge of epigenetics will make endurance running and walking more popular.

“Why Your DNA Isn’t Your Destiny” — about the burgeoning scientific field of epigenetics — was the cover article for a January, 2010, issue of Time magazine. As explained in the article, “patterns of gene expression are governed by the cellular material — the epigenome — that sits on top of the genome.” And the Time article explains well how epigenetics has fascinating implications for how our behavior today can possibly affect our offspring for generations to come.

Why It’s Interesting: As more people understand the implications of epigenetics, they should feel more compelled to take better care of themselves — both physically and mentally. And this bodes well for a rise in popularity of endurance running and walking.

What are your predictions? Please leave a comment here. Thanks!

When you take time to analyze it, what does a treadmill do for a runner or walker? It forces him or her to run or walk at a particular speed and on a particular incline. And it does this for minute after minute and, in the extreme, even hour after hour.

In contrast, when you are running or walking on the road or trail, unless you have someone with a very fixed speed who runs or walks beside you and relentlessly tells you to keep his or her pace, it can be very challenging to maintain your pace (minutes per mile or kilometer) and cadence (steps per minute).

If you and this other person have a similar cadence, then you are at an advantage over someone who is training with a coach who is much shorter or taller than him or her (because their two cadences will be different because of widely different leg lengths). If you have ever had the same cadence as a running or walking partner, then you can well appreciate this. It makes the workout almost effortless because your body is mirroring the pace and cadence of the other body. Another example can be found in the tennis world. If you have ever seen identical twins play doubles tennis together, then you have very likely witnessed how they can naturally walk in almost perfect unison. American professional tennis players and identical twins Bob and Mike Bryan are a great example of this phenomenon.

So how can you get the benefits of a treadmill while running or walking outside? If you have your own treadmill, then you could put it outside for your workouts. But there are some drawbacks:

• You will shorten the life of your treadmill by exposing it to the elements of nature.
• Your scenery will never change.
• You are not running or walking with others — unless you have multiple, side-by-side treadmills outside!
• You cannot use it in weather extremes (such as lightning-free rain or in snow), unless it is covered and protected — not exactly as “outside” as you would get by being on the road or trail!
• You cannot take it with you when traveling.

Although it is difficult to imitate a treadmill’s constant or controllable incline on the road or trail, there are two portable gadgets that you can use to create a virtual treadmill and imitate a real treadmill’s ability to challenge you to maintain your pace and cadence.

1. GPS wrist unit: This is like a speedometer on your wrist. Configure yours so that it displays in large digits your current pace, and then check it often during a workout on the road or trail. You can even configure some units so that they beep at you when your pace drifts too far away from your target pace.
2. Portable metronome: This clip-on device is like a tachometer on your waist. Set it to beep for every step according to the cadence that works for you. Then simply move your legs and feet to keep this rhythm during your walk or run.

These are the only two gadgets that you need to create a portable, virtual treadmill.

Do you use these two gadgets? Please leave a comment here. Thanks!

Treadmill running is not the same as track running. But you may be considering as a runner whether it could be worthwhile to train on each. To help you to decide when to use which approach, here is a discussion of several differences between these two approaches to runner training.

Balance

Treadmill running forces you to maintain your balance because you must stay upright, whereas you can lean left or right while running on a track.

Camaraderie

If a track is secluded and little-known whereas your treadmill machine is in a gym, then treadmill running can give you more camaraderie. If a track is popular whereas your machine is at home, then track running will give you more camaraderie.

Coaching

If you are looking for a running coach, you are more likely to find one on a track. But sophisticated machines include computerized coaching.

Concentration

Treadmills require high concentration (or you will fall off!) whereas you can let your concentration drift on a track.

Convenience

Convenience is debatable. If your treadmill is in a gym instead of in your home, then a track could be just as convenient, if not more so (if you live close to a track).

Cost

Access to a gym treadmill requires gym fees + your driving costs. Using a home unit has purchase, maintenance, and electricity costs. Running on a track mostly requires driving costs (plus the cost of extra clothing for inclement weather).

Curves

You can use a track to practice running on curves, which is impossible to practice on a treadmill.

Cushioning

If you are going to race on a track, training on a treadmill cannot match training on a track. But a treadmill’s unique cushioning can help you to train longer for road races.

Fresh Air

If you like to be outdoors in fresh air, then treadmill training is not for you. But, if you live where weather is often bad, then track training may not be for you.

Humidity

Running indoors frees you from worrying about humidity challenges that you can face when running on a track. But a drawback of training indoors is that you may not prepare yourself to deal with race-day humidity levels.

Incline

If you are using a treadmill to prepare for track racing, then you do not need a treadmill’s incline feature. But this feature is great for preparing you for hilly road races.

Maintenance

If you have a home treadmill, then you are responsible for maintenance. Gym treadmills and tracks free you from maintenance work.

Multitasking

You may like to multitask — such as watch an inspiring running video — while training on a treadmill. You cannot multitask on a track.

Pacing

It is hard to beat a treadmill for forcing you to run at one pace or another. But it is hard to beat track training for giving you repeated feedback about your self-determined running pace.

Placement

Buying a treadmill forces you to find space in your home for it. But a gym unit or a track frees you to dedicate your home’s square-footage to other needs.

Peace

A treadmill is noisy relative to a track. But you may prefer the peace you get from a machine’s white noise to the peace that you can get from being outdoors in nature.

Strength

A treadmill that has been steeply inclined can force you to strengthen muscles that get little workout on a flat track. But the curve of a track will force you to strengthen muscles that will get no such conditioning on a unidirectional treadmill.

Temperature

Running indoors means a predictable ambient temperature. Running outdoors on a track means that the ambient temperature is at the mercy of the weather.

Visualization

Sophisticated treadmills include video displays that can stimulate your creative-visualization skill as a runner. But track running can give you the solitude to stimulate creative visualization, too.

Wind

Other than perhaps an electrical box-fan blowing strongly against you, training on a treadmill means no wind. This can be good when you want to focus on other aspects of your running. But it will not prepare you as well as a track will for handling wind gusts, tailwinds, and headwinds that you can experience when racing outdoors.

Do you mix these two types of running? Please leave a comment here. Thanks!